33 Pinpoint Weather: Despite the warm up, white Christmas still possible

Even though temperatures will be trending above normal through the week, hope shouldn’t be lost on a white Christmas just yet.

A cold front is slated to move through the region Friday into Saturday. This will bring the colder air back to the region. All we need is the snow, and models are currently suggesting we will see some. Some suggest more than others.

**PLEASE TAKE NOTE: This is not a final forecast. At the time of writing this, Christmas day is still a week away. The models can change and that would impact what we see. Stay updated with the latest forecast here. **

That said, here’s how things are looking currently.

THE GFS SCENARIO
The GFS models, one of the American forecast models, is the less snowy model. It currently shows cold air approaching the area and locking into the region. Below is what the model shows for temperatures in the afternoon on Christmas Eve.

The model shows temperatures below freezing and it develops a little snow on around the area on Christmas Eve.

Heading into the afternoon on Christmas day, the model continues to show snow. This would likely be lake effect snow, based on the pattern this model shows. The snow would be occurring well on the back side of a storm that will be well to our east.

So, based on what this model has, we would have a chance at a light coating. Here is how much snow it is currently showing across the area between Christmas Eve and Christmas day.

THE EUROPEAN SCENARIO
The Euro model, another reliable model, paints a different picture. It has two main differences. The first is, it is warmer in the afternoon for Christmas Eve and it currently doesn’t show any precipitation in the area.

The other main difference is, it brings the large storm our team is tracking much closer to the Valley. The snapshot below is what the model is showing for Christmas morning. The pink line would be the rain/snow line, and that is shown just touching the Valley.

This scenario as shown would result in higher snowfall for the Valley, but there’s a catch. A slight shift to the west, by as little as 20 miles, in the track of the storm would result in the majority of the area seeing rain instead of snow. But, if this model has the best handle on the storm, with it playing out exactly as shown, a steady and heavier snow would be likely on Christmas day. Below is a snapshot of how much snow the European model is currently predicting for Christmas Day.

SUMMARY
By definition, a white Christmas is when one inch of snow is either present on the ground or falls at any time on Dec. 25. With both models suggesting snowfall, it would appear we have a decent probability of seeing a white Christmas. Currently, I expect a 65 percent chance at a white Christmas. That said, everything depends on the development and track of a storm system that will develop somewhere in the south/central plains and move toward New England. The track of this storm is key. If it stays closer to the east coast, we won’t see much snow. If it takes a more westerly track, it could spoil our chances of any snow by pulling warmer temperatures into the area. This is something our team is watching closely and will be updating through the week. Stay updated with the latest forecasts on-air and here at WYTV.com.