There are three big weather stories this weekend
1. The frigid cold continues into the weekend.
2. A warm-up is slated to begin on Sunday.
3. I’m tracking a storm that will accompany that warm up, bringing the risk for snow to the area by the morning commute Monday.
Here’s how the weekend will play out…
FRIGID COLD ENDING SOON
Wind Chill advisories remain in effect through Saturday afternoon for the area. The afternoon will remain frigid. Highs will only reach 8° with wind chills as low as -15° possible through the day. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible through the first half of the day Saturday, mainly in the snowbelt.
Skies will clear and the winds begin calming Saturday night. These conditions, combined with a frozen snowpack on the ground, are the perfect set-up for radiational cooling (The process in which the daytime warmth escapes more easily due to the lack of an insulation layer, like clouds) and rapidly plummeting temperatures. The actual air temperature Saturday night is expected to fall as low as -10°.
FINALLY, SOME WARMER AIR!
Sunday will be the pivot. It starts cold but temperatures will climb steadily through the day. By the afternoon, expect temperatures to begin crossing the 20° threshold. By the early evening, expect temperatures in the middle 20s, around 25°. Temperatures won’t drop Sunday night and will, instead, rise into the 30s by Monday afternoon.
A STORM TO WATCH CLOSELY
As the warmer air pushes into the Valley, we will need to watch a storm system that will approach the area. I want to be clear, at the time of writing this, the storm is still about 60 hours away. This is not a final forecast, but rather a look at what models are currently showing. You will need to stay updated with the latest forecasts through the weekend. That said, here’s what it looks like as of Friday evening.
Models show snow showers developing overnight Sunday into early Monday. The snow would likely be ongoing Monday morning and slick roadways will be possible for the morning commute on Monday. There is still some uncertainty with this storm. For starters, temperatures are expected to climb above freezing Monday for the first time since Christmas Eve! The path the storm takes, as well as how much warmer air is present at the upper levels of the atmosphere, is very important for whether or not we see the snow transition to a wintry mix, or even to rain. There is model data suggesting a wintry mix of sleet or freezing rain is possible, but the majority of models keep the precipitation as all snow. If the changeover occurs, accumulations would be much lower.
The track of the storm will be important, too. Currently, it looks like we are set to see at least a trace to 1″ of snow across the entire area. The most likely accumulation range will be around 1″ to 3″ of new snow by Monday evening. There is the potential for accumulations to go a little higher. The bottom line, this storm is something our team will be keeping an eye on and it could impact your morning commute Monday. Stay updated with the latest forecasts both on air and here at WYTV.com.
For an hour-by-hour breakdown of this storm, click “play” on the video above. To see an hourly forecast and the current 7-Day forecast, CLICK HERE.